Within a month of departure date.

The travel companies use pricing software based on algorimic supply and demand so the best deals come when the software identifies an excess supply verse time decay left to departure.. ( ie how long is left to departure date).

The greater the time decay, ie, the further away from departure the higher the price generaly is due to a low risk curve as there's still plently of time left to sell the hoildays at a good profit.

However as time decays... the greater the risk curve becomes, so the algorimic computer models will start reducing prices in line with the rising risk curve, by a set percentage dependent on how much excess supply has to be sold.

The key is, to identify when there is excess supply relative to time decay to get the best deals. Most people will think thats as late as possable to departure. Its often not the case !

The most noticable time frame for large percentage reductions, is the sub 42 to 34 days to departure for Euro based currency hoildays, ie: the operator has paid for hotel rooms and other parts that make up the "package" in Euro's.

For Dollar based currency hoildays, Sub 34-21 days is more the norm due to the extra profit magin of the weaker dollar verses the Euro.

However as the supply reduces ( less avaiablity ) the computer price models will re-adjust the risk profile and often the price will start to increase realtive to risk, as the time to departure ticks down.

Very well done cas, just need to be able to hack the tour ops system to get the best price.

I booked 7 weeks from dep this year and I was pretty close to the cheapest price. The price dropped the week after I booked but only by a small amount £20, but then after the price rose when near departure by £200 for the 3 of us. I thought I had done pretty well. I used how much discount had been given from what the brochure price stated which was near 40%. I couldn't see the price being reduced anymore or the tour op would be looking at a loss. and took a chance

The hardest part is timing when to book

Thx

Yes as always timing is everthing.....But by having a rough idea how
things work, we can swing the odds of getting the a good deal greatly in our favour.

I'll will miss Mytravel's system, its the easiest price model to time

Mytravel would just let the packages go for a loss as time reduced, due to their poor data models and the fact they seemed to be experts in overbooking regions where there is no demand Thomas cook (KarstadtQuelle) run a much tighter ship

All good things come to an end, as they say

Thomson teletext deals have been good this year and quite a bit cheaper than their web price.In June I got the new Turban palace for £239 including transfers,TOD,20kgs luggage and no charge for credit cards.The web price for the same holiday was £469.I was told by the agent I booked with that their price was the most up to date price as the call centre was at the head office in Wales.There seems to be better deal in the months of May and June.I usually book 2-3 weeks before I go although the deal I got in June was booked just a week before the holiday.

Good point Jay,

Some opertors do not update their websites as often as they should. However the Call centre(s) will use latest View data system prices.

Hence another reason I always recommend booking with the tour operators in house call centre(s).

thanks, really appreciate all your advice.

never booked a late deal before, we booked around xmas time last year for turkey in july. my parents then booked about a month before they went for turkey, paid much less than us and got a nicer hotel so we're gonna try it next year but it's hard stopping myself wanting to book now so i have a date on the calendar to look forward too

Having worked in travel in the past its a matter of supply and demand. If the tour operator is having trouble shifting seats prices will drop until people start booking. If things are selling well - such as in the schoolholidays prices will stay high, and when supply outstrips demand - like this summer prices will go up a lot.

Having said that some of the charter operators selling flight onlys are now following the same model as the low cost carriers starting at cheap prices, and increasing as seats sell - the quicker they sell the quicker they go up in price !

In other words noone really knows when the best deals are available but I can say if you can be flexible about when to travel then June is always good value