BigAl, I appreciate your comments about Monarch having delays. However, I should point out that it is not only Monarch that have had heavy delays this year. I know that Thomas Cook have also been hit quite badly as have Easyjet. In fact Easyjet have even had to cancel a number of flights because of crewing issues and have had to lease out 3 x 757's this summer to cover part of their programme for the same reason. You will find that it is quite rare for Monarch to cancel a flight and leave passengers up the swanny. If there is a problem then they will always try and honour the flight, even if it means a heavy delay.
I know you have been keeping your eye on the Saturday PMI because you are off there soon, and since you pointed it out, I have also been keeping an eye on it. It does appear that this flight has been particularly affected, along with the Malaga. Strangely, the PMI flights during the week don't seem to have been as badly affected. The only reason I can suggest (and it is only a suggestion) that this flight may have been more affected than others is that crewing are able to juggle with the crew's hours on this shorter flight more so than on the other flights to places such as the Canaries, Turkey, Greece and Egypt where crew are more likely to go out of hours sooner.
Monarch did not have a standby aircraft this year, but then they didn't have one last year either. There was a B757 that was designated a standby aircraft the previous year, before it picked up a line of flying halfway through the season. It is just not economical for an airline to have aircraft sitting on the ground, where not only is it not flying but it is picking up airport charges for parking. As far as I am aware, Monarch never expected to have the government contract that Wizard speaks of. In fact, I believe that these contracts are only awarded a short time before they are due to operate and so Monarch would not have known about them at the start of the summer when the programme was finalised. However, these would only be taken on if the company believed there was sufficient space in the flying programme to operate them, not instead of or with priority over its existing flying programme. I can assure you that Monarch's priorities definitely do lie with its fare-paying passengers. This is its bread and butter market and not the occasional ad-hoc flight it gets in from the government. Unfortunately, because of the number of technical problems the company has faced this year, they have been affected quite a lot but they have done very well to keep the schedule going as much as they have done.
It is not as easy as you may think to simply sub out the flight to another airline. Because of the current economic climate in the airline industry, few airlines have standby aircraft sitting around, and even then it does not mean that only one aircraft is going to go tech at the same time. Even if an airline does offload a flight to another company, it will still mean a considerable delay. As it happens, I have just returned home after being told there was a problem with the aircraft I was due to operate on and the operations team were desperately phoning around to try and offload it to another airline. It seems it has now been delayed until later this evening, where there is some space in the Monarch schedule, when this evening's flights have returned. At this time of year, aircraft can be up in the air pretty much 24/7, apart from when it is turned around, and to encounter a technical problem can turn the schedule on its head.
Hopefully, by the time you take your flight in October when the flying programme will have quietened down a lot, and there are fewer night flights, there will be much less chance of you incurring a delay.