I haven't been following the stats for England but up here in Scotland we have seen some very tragic deaths from Swine Flu this winter, children, old people and perhaps most tragically for her family, a pregnant Mum who never quite managed to get around to having the jab as recommended. Statistically her chances of catching swine flu and dieing might very well have been very low indeed but that makes no difference to her grieving family. The problem with assessing these things on the basis of 'How likely am I to catch this?' is that it all becomes irrelevant if you are the 1 in a 1,000 or even 1 in a 1,000,000 who catches it. For me, rather than asking 'What are my chances?', I focus in on asking 'What if I get it?' And for me, the what ifs are far more frightening than the possible side effects. Especially since the likelihood of damaging side effects is always going to be lower than the chances of catching the disease without them because if they weren't the drugs would never get licenced if the dangers of taking them exceeded the dangers of the disease they were designed to protect you from.
Being a tourist can be a protection against many diseases because, for example, your chances of drinking cholera infected water are remote if you stay in a tourist hotel and don't venture from areas were a supply of clean drinking water is always available. But being a tourist is no protection when it comes to being bitten by an infected mozzie - they can't tell the difference between a local and a tourist. Your chances of being bitten are no lower and potentially higher in some respects because of the things we do as tourists that the locals don't always do, such as wearing very skimpy clothing that exposes lots of bare skin in the first place. Or burning ourselves to a frazzle that means that we are radiating even more heat for the mozzies infra-red seeking sensors to home in on.
Also, we are just as much a source of infection as the mosquitoes, in that Malaria is spread by mosquitoes becoming infected with it as a result of biting infected individuals. The more we spread the disease around by going to countries were it is endemic, getting infected and coming home again the more likely that we are to build a sufficient pool of infection within the population that could result in it becoming endemic here in the long run. The spread of Malaria around the world has happened because human beings, not the mosquitoes, are travelling more around the world. For me, unless a docter advises me that the consequences for my health of taking anti-malarials (eg due to pre-existing medical condition) are greater than the consequences of catching malaria, I would always take them if I am travelling to an area where there is ANY risk of catching malaria.
Finally, I don't do the lottery because I think that when the chances are only 1 in 14 million that I'll win the Jackpot, even a £1 stake isn't worth losing but it doesn't stop lots of people from doing it each week. Or taking their chances on a really big win in the Euromillion lottery were the odds are even worse. Which suggests that they think that such odds still hold out the chance that they will be the one, yet some people are prepared to take the chance that they WON'T be the one who catches Malaria if they don't bother with anti-malarials even though the odds are lower and the risks higher.
SM
