It's hard to imagine what incentive airtours would have for over-estimating/over-declaring their projected losses as a result of Hurrican Wilma as you seem to think they are. Most companies in their position are anxious to allay investors and customers fears and will, therefore, try and resort to creative accounting procedures to minimise projected losses and liabilities so as to try and maintain market confidence. Any company which exaggerates its losses and future liabilities really does have a death wish!
At the risk of appearing to be cynical how does this sound to you;
A company has had a bad trading period and appreciates there's likely to be a fall in profits. This is also likely to cause the shares to drop when the fact is made public.
1. The directors sell shares shortly before the announcement and buy back at the lower price after the announcement.
2. They may trade in options on the shares (a put option I believe) gambling on the share falling. In effect, selling shares now that they do not own to buy when the option is exercised after the share drop.
3. They paint a blacker-than-necessary picture causing the shares to drop more than would likely be the case, start the new financial year at an artificially low share price and when they end that new year with a higher share price are awarded bonuses as a consequence.
Now I'm not saying any particular company is doing or has ever done this kind of thing but it is possible.
